1998 Shell Internal TINA Group Scenarios 1998-2020 Report
The Group of the Future and the Group Scenarios, 1998-2020
p. 5
The Group of the Future
The Group of the Future
'TINA' ('There Is No Alternative')
'TINA' ('There Is No Alternative')
"Previous global scenarios have ... concentrated on global issues such as the oil price, the environment, political and financial trends, and the post-Cold War world order. This time, however, the focus is on Group issues, especially the external developments that have a direct bearing on strategic questions currently facing the Group. Under each scenario the section entitled The New Corporation raises fundamental issues - the function of corporations, the importance of strategic control points, the profit zone, the forces of atomisation and commoditisation, the nature of reputation, organisational learning, leadership, and core purpose."
"Previous global scenarios have ... concentrated on global issues such as the oil price, the environment, political and financial trends, and the post-Cold War world order. This time, however, the focus is on Group issues, especially the external developments that have a direct bearing on strategic questions currently facing the Group. Under each scenario the section entitled The New Corporation raises fundamental issues - the function of corporations, the importance of strategic control points, the profit zone, the forces of atomisation and commoditisation, the nature of reputation, organisational learning, leadership, and core purpose."
p. 9
"For a period of around one year, the Group Scenarios will remain restricted to Group personnel. After this, it is intended that the scenarios should add further value to the Group through a number of forms of dissemination to a wider public. For example: Presentations and workshops for stakeholders and other interest groups. A booklet summarising the scenarios. The provision of content for keynote speeches."
"For a period of around one year, the Group Scenarios will remain restricted to Group personnel. After this, it is intended that the scenarios should add further value to the Group through a number of forms of dissemination to a wider public. For example: Presentations and workshops for stakeholders and other interest groups. A booklet summarising the scenarios. The provision of content for keynote speeches."
TINA Above and Below
p. 11
"The 1992 scenarios described two responses to these forces: in New Frontiers, the opportunities and challenges were embraced, while in Barricades, they were resisted. Three years later, we saw that Barricades was an unsustainable world - the forces of what came to be known as "TINA" were simply too strong to resist."
"The 1992 scenarios described two responses to these forces: in New Frontiers, the opportunities and challenges were embraced, while in Barricades, they were resisted. Three years later, we saw that Barricades was an unsustainable world - the forces of what came to be known as "TINA" were simply too strong to resist."
p. 16
"Will we learn to cope with Tina Above by coming together to design global rules of the game that allow it to be played fairly and efficiently? Will we strengthen global institutions, continually reinvent our businesses, and learn to play The New Game? Or will TINA Below, with its spontaneous, unstructured, and less predictable forces of wealth, choice, and education, dominate? Will consumer choice, rising personal expectations, and grassroots pressure groups overwhelm attempts to impose rules and overshadow old institutions? Will People Power emerge, producing forms of organisation and economic activity that we have never seen before, and challenging businesses with the need for creativity and resilience?"
"Will we learn to cope with Tina Above by coming together to design global rules of the game that allow it to be played fairly and efficiently? Will we strengthen global institutions, continually reinvent our businesses, and learn to play The New Game? Or will TINA Below, with its spontaneous, unstructured, and less predictable forces of wealth, choice, and education, dominate? Will consumer choice, rising personal expectations, and grassroots pressure groups overwhelm attempts to impose rules and overshadow old institutions? Will People Power emerge, producing forms of organisation and economic activity that we have never seen before, and challenging businesses with the need for creativity and resilience?"
p. 17
"In The New Game, companies are engaged in a relentless search for profit under the keen eye of the competition authorities ... Companies cannot simply continue to do business as usual, but mist identify the part of the value chain that can actually produce a profit and move to that 'profit zone' ..."
"In The New Game, companies are engaged in a relentless search for profit under the keen eye of the competition authorities ... Companies cannot simply continue to do business as usual, but mist identify the part of the value chain that can actually produce a profit and move to that 'profit zone' ..."
"... a transparent framework of rules on top, many players underneath, and big gaps between winners and losers is the US. ... for many people, the predominance of the Anglo-Saxon economic model makes the world feel increasingly like the US writ large."
"... a transparent framework of rules on top, many players underneath, and big gaps between winners and losers is the US. ... for many people, the predominance of the Anglo-Saxon economic model makes the world feel increasingly like the US writ large."
p. 21
"Success depends on identifying the constantly shifting profit zone, the area of the value chain where customers are prepared to pay in excess of the cost of capital."
"Success depends on identifying the constantly shifting profit zone, the area of the value chain where customers are prepared to pay in excess of the cost of capital."
The Framework for Institution Building
Energy, the Environment, and the Value Chessboard
The New Corporation: Learning and the Power of Strategic Design
Millennium Bangs and Innovations
Energy, the Environment, and Consumer's Choice
p. 108
"A significant number of customers are intensely concerned with the environmental or social impacts of their energy sources. In People Power, many varied supply packages are developed for these consumers - from pure renewables, to low carbon, to locally produced energy. These customers rely on a host of third-party agents to certify and verify the quality and sources of their supply."
"A significant number of customers are intensely concerned with the environmental or social impacts of their energy sources. In People Power, many varied supply packages are developed for these consumers - from pure renewables, to low carbon, to locally produced energy. These customers rely on a host of third-party agents to certify and verify the quality and sources of their supply."
"... these customers demand action."
"... these customers demand action."
p. 119
Environment Back on the Front Pages "In 2010, a series of violent storms causes extensive damage to the eastern coast of the US. Although it is not clear whether the storms are cause by climate change, people are not willing to take further chances."
Environment Back on the Front Pages "In 2010, a series of violent storms causes extensive damage to the eastern coast of the US. Although it is not clear whether the storms are cause by climate change, people are not willing to take further chances."
p. 122
"Following the storms, a coalition of environmental NGOs brings a class-action suit against the US government and fossil-fuel companies on the grounds of neglecting what scientists (including their own) have been saying for years: that something must be done. A social reaction to the use of fossil fuels grows, and individuals become 'vigilante environmentalists' in the same way, a generation earlier, they had become fiercely anti-tobacco. Direct-action campaigns against companies escalate. Young consumers, especially, demand action ..."
"Following the storms, a coalition of environmental NGOs brings a class-action suit against the US government and fossil-fuel companies on the grounds of neglecting what scientists (including their own) have been saying for years: that something must be done. A social reaction to the use of fossil fuels grows, and individuals become 'vigilante environmentalists' in the same way, a generation earlier, they had become fiercely anti-tobacco. Direct-action campaigns against companies escalate. Young consumers, especially, demand action ..."